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Anticipated Price Movement for Hot Rolled Steel And Cold Rolled Steel in Near Future

2024-07-15 09:34:20

China's cold rolled steel coil and hot rolled steel coil market showed a slight downward trend in the past June, with weak demand and lower steel prices.


Overall, in June, China's cold rolled steel plate and hot rolled steel plate market prices fell. Taking Shanghai market as an example, the price of 1.0 mm cold steel plate ST12 made by Anshan Iron & Steel fell from RMB 4,380 per tonne at the beginning of the month to RMB 4,190 per tonne at the end of the month, a drop of RMB 190 per tonne; and the price of 5.5 mm to 11.75 mm x 1,500 mm x C hot rolled steel sheet in coil Q235B made by Shougang and Anshan Iron & Steel fell from RMB 3,830 per tonne at the beginning of the month to RMB 3,720 per tonne at the end of the month, a drop of RMB 110 per tonne.

From the June market trading conditions, traders generally feel that sales are not smooth and shipments are difficult. This is mainly due to the weak downstream end-use demand resulting in weak purchasing willingness of users and limited sales of merchants. Some merchants in order to ship, choose to accept customer bargaining, steel prices "open + dark drop" phenomenon is more obvious.

Weather factors are also the key to influence the recent trend of the steel market. Southern rainy weather continued, coupled with a strong atmosphere of decline in the futures market, pushing steel spot prices to follow the decline.

For the later cold, hot rolled coil market sentiment trends, the short term cold rolled steel sheet and hot rolled steel sheet prices are stable, mainly due to the following aspects:

cold rolled steel coil


First, cold rolled plate and hot rolled plate demand is expected to improve.

Recently, automotive, home appliances and other manufacturing industries production and sales are still in good condition, cold rolled sheet steel, hot rolled carbon steel coil demand has a certain degree of resilience. Passenger car market information association statistics show that in early and mid-June, China's passenger car market retail volume reached 1,087,000 units, an increase of 2%; passenger car manufacturers wholesale volume reached 1,169,000 units, an increase of 11%; new energy vehicle market retail volume reached 534,000 units, an increase of 7%. Since the beginning of this year, the retail volume of China's passenger car market has reached 9.16 million units, up 3 per cent year-on-year; the wholesale volume of passenger car manufacturers has reached 10.753 million units, up 6 per cent year-on-year; and the retail volume of the new energy vehicle market has reached 3.789 million units, up 32 per cent year-on-year.

In terms of home appliances, the recent home appliance manufacturing production increased overall.

According to the industry agencies released three white power production report shows that in July, China's air conditioning, refrigerator, washing machine production reached 30.34 million units, compared with the same period last year production performance increased by 0.5%. Among them, the air conditioning output reached 16.53 million units, an increase of 0.4% over the same period last year; refrigerator output reached 7.7 million units, an increase of 1.7% over the same period last year; washing machine output reached 6.11 million units, a decline of 0.8% over the same period last year.

It is expected that in July automobiles, home appliances and other manufacturing industries on the cold rolled carbon steel plate and hot rolled carbon steel plate demand will improve, in favour of cold, hot rolled coil prices to stop falling.



Secondly, the incremental supply of steel cold rolled coil and hot rolled carbon steel sheet is limited, which is conducive to easing the contradiction between supply and demand.

Due to the previous period of steel prices fell shockingly, the profit of iron and steel enterprises contracted significantly, part of the enterprise into a loss-making state. National Bureau of Statistics data show that in the first five months of this year, the steel industry loss narrowed to 12.72 billion yuan. Affected by this, steel enterprises to limit production increased. China Iron and Steel Industry Association data show that in mid-June, the average daily crude steel production of key statistical iron and steel enterprises reached 2,185,100 tonnes, a decline of 2.81% month-on-month, down 3.43% year-on-year.
hot rolled steel coil
Thirdly, the rigid cost support for steel prices is still strong.

Recently, iron ore, coke, scrap and other raw steel fuel prices are still at a high level. in late June, the domestic coke market launched a new round of hikes, coke prices rose in the 50 yuan / tonne ~ 55 yuan / tonne. Coal prices rose slightly. Scrap prices rose steadily, with heavy scrap prices rising by RMB 10/tonne week-on-week in Tangshan, Hebei, and RMB 20/tonne in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu.

Due to the steel raw fuel prices continue to run high, the cost pressure on steel enterprises is still big, so in determining the steel ex-factory prices are mostly price-holding, which also determines the possibility of a sharp decline in the late cold, hot rolled coil prices is unlikely.