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Steel import and export analysis in May

2024-07-11 15:28:59

China Iron and Steel Industry Association Market Research Department

In May, China exported 9.631 million tonnes of steel, an increase of 407,000 tonnes from a year earlier, and an increase of 1.275 million tonnes year-on-year; the average unit price of exports was US$760.7 per tonne, a drop of 2.2% from a year earlier, and a drop of 17.5% year-on-year. China imported 637,000 tonnes of steel, a decrease of 21,000 tonnes from a year earlier and an increase of 0.6 million tonnes year-on-year; the average unit price of imports was US$1,651.5 per tonne, a decrease of 3.3% from a year earlier and a decrease of 4.9% year-on-year.

January - May, China exported 44.655 million tonnes of steel, up 24.7% year-on-year; the average unit price of exports was 780.2 U.S. dollars per tonne, down 29.0% year-on-year; exports of 1.163 million tonnes of billet, a year-on-year decline of 17.4%; net exports of 43.215 million tonnes of crude steel, an increase of 8.910 million tonnes year-on-year, or an increase of 26.0%. China imported 3.043 million tonnes of steel, a year-on-year decline of 2.7%; the average unit price of imports was US$1,658.3 per tonne, a year-on-year decline of 4.1%; imports of 1.109 million tonnes of billet, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%.

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South America, Southeast Asia, steel export growth is more obvious

In May, China's steel exports, "volume increase and price decline" situation continues. Most varieties of exports, exports to most countries or regional growth, exports to South America, Southeast Asia, regional export growth is more obvious.

Steel exports increased mainly from the plate.

In May, steel exports rose slightly from the previous year, mainly from plate. Among them, cold rolled thin and wide steel strip, steel plate, hot rolled thin and wide steel strip rose 27.3%, 15.6%, 11.1%. 
In addition, wire rod exports rose sharply by 24.5 per cent YoY, the highest level since May 2021, with a more pronounced increment in plain coil. Seamless steel pipe and coated plate exports declined YoY, but remained at a high level.In January-May, of the 22 major categories of steel varieties, except for seamless pipe, bar and thick steel plate exports declined year-on-year, the other 19 categories of varieties increased year-on-year, and all varieties of average export prices fell year-on-year.

In May, China exported 458,000 tonnes of stainless steel material, up 16.6% and 30.0% sequentially and year-on-year respectively, the highest level since July 2022. The export growth to Cambodia, Turkey and China Taiwan is more obvious, with an increase of 158.4%, 38.9% and 55.6% respectively.From January to May, China's cumulative export volume reached 1.912 million tonnes, up 12.8% year-on-year.

Exports to major countries and regions grew year-on-year.

In May, China's exports to major countries and regions increased year-on-year. Exports to ASEAN amounted to 2.995 million tonnes, up 2.4% YoY, of which exports to Thailand and the Philippines were up 20.7% and 11.8% YoY respectively. In the export of major countries and regions, exports to Chile, Pakistan, China Taiwan exports ring more significant growth, an increase of 125.2%, 65.8%, 80.0%; exports to Saudi Arabia declined. January - May, China's exports to major regions other than the EU to maintain growth, of which the cumulative exports to the ASEAN and the GCC year-on-year growth of respectively 32.6 per cent and 37.0 per cent respectively. Exports to Vietnam grew 83.9% year-on-year to 5.511 million tonnes, which has reached 60.8% of the 2023 total exports to Vietnam. Exports to the UAE and Brazil also grew at a rate of 48.5 per cent and 56.3 per cent respectively.

Billet exports increased YoY.

In May, China exported 313,000 tonnes of primary iron and steel products, continuing to decline by 6.5 percent year-on-year. Among them, only billet exports increased year-on-year, and direct reduced iron exports fell back to normal levels from the high level in April.

Steel imports fell slightly from a year earlier

In May, steel imports fell slightly from the previous month, maintaining a low level of operation, imports of regional and product structure remained stable overall.

Coated plate and medium-thickness wide steel strip imports growth.

In May, steel imports fell slightly from the previous month, the main varieties of changes in some differences. Imports of larger varieties, plate, cold rolled thin and wide steel strip, cold rolled sheet imports declined from the high point in April, while the coated plate and medium-thickness wide steel strip imports growth. January - May, China's cumulative year-on-year decline in steel imports gradually narrowed, compared with January - February narrowed sharply by 5.4 percentage points. Imports fell year-on-year varieties are cold rolled thin and wide steel strip and electrical steel plate, down 29.1% and 52.1% respectively.

In May, China's imports of stainless steel 13.0 million tonnes, down 17.0%, up 3.7%. Of which 105,000 tonnes imported from Indonesia, down 20.0%. January - May, China's cumulative imports of stainless steel 640,000 tonnes, up 8.2% year-on-year.
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Steel imports from Japan showed a slight increase.

In May, China's steel imports from Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, a total of 50.0 million tonnes, accounting for 78.5% of total imports. Since the beginning of this year, China's steel imports from Japan showed a slight increase in trend, imports from Indonesia appeared stage high, but imports from South Korea as a whole declined. The first five months, China's imports from most countries and regions fell year-on-year, only from Japan and Indonesia imports increased.

Billet imports fell for three consecutive months.

In May, China's imports of primary steel products 14.0 million tonnes, down 23.8% year-on-year, down 45.2%. Among them, steel billet imports fell for three consecutive months from a year earlier, and other varieties also remained at a lower level.

Later outlook

In May, steel exports are still at a high level, hot rolled coil, wire rod and other varieties of "volume increase and price drop" feature obvious, has triggered a high degree of external concern, the risk of trade friction in steel products intensified. As of the end of June 2024, the new trade remedy investigation cases have reached 10 cases. It is expected that the total steel exports in the first half of 2024 will be more than 50 million tonnes, and the "volume increase and price drop" state is difficult to sustain.